Playing The People
Think back a little more than a year ago, to the political campaigns of 2004. One of the hottest issues in presidential debates and congressional campaigns was the threat to traditional marriage posed by gay people seeking the right to wed. [...]
But a year later, it seems pertinent to ask: Have you heard or read a single word about a federal gay-marriage amendment since the election?
No, you have not, because this supposedly all-important issue has vanished from the political landscape. Judging from the available evidence, this dire threat to marriage and family, this looming peril to the very core of American society, has simply disappeared as a concern. Certainly, nobody’s talking about it or trying to do anything about it any longer.
A cynical person might look at that evidence and suggest that maybe the gay-marriage controversy was never real in the first place. Maybe it was just a product, like soap or toilet paper, that was manufactured by politicians and then sold by certain media outlets and interest groups. Maybe those politicians never had any intention of trying to pass such an amendment and were merely playing their supporters for fools. [...]
Basically, what you’re seeing is a retail operation, and gay marriage was last year’s inventory. It has been rotated off the shelves, at least for now, to make way for a holiday-themed product in exactly the same way that Home Depot removes inventory from its garden section to make space for Christmas trees. (source)
I still think that gay marriage will be the big ticket item in the next election. The “war on terror” is just getting old and worn out, especially since we are losing people and according to latest polls, the majority of the Iraqi People want our forces to leave.
But the “gay marriage” issue... well, that’s saving the very pillar of our civilization (with it’s 55% divorce rate) from sodomites. I think that’s worth at least three elections. Don’t you?
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I do think that a lot of people are getting tired of the gay bashing in the GOP. It's not that they are becoming enlightened. They still hate gays. But, there are bigger issues, in their minds, that is not getting addressed, and I agree with them.
I say that people are getting tired of gay bashing from conservatives because I'm starting to see more and more "conservative" people who are "Republicans" changing their minds on such things as civil unions and taking a more moderate stand on equality in terms of basic civil liberties, such as hospital visitation rights.
I read more and more that people who used to support bans on gay marriage AND civil unions are starting to see that as "mean spirited" and "going too far". That is progress. So you may be right. Perhaps gay marriage won't be used in the next election to garner votes. But this Administration is not the brightest bulb in the bunch. It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP tired it again. With the religious conservatives, I think it would work because those people become blind and rabid when it comes to the topic of gays being able to destroy the "sanctity of marriage". History gets lost and they quickly forget that in the last election, they were used. After the election, all talk of the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage ceased.
Immigration is a big issue right now, but I'm wondering if the President can really maintain the momentum on that topic? If I were him, I'd probably go after both. Why not? He has nothing to lose. Go after gay marriage again. The evangelicals will take the bait again and the GOP will gain their votes. Go ahead and "get tough on immigration" (hopefully he will put more thought into that than he did Iraq), and his party gains more votes. It really doesn't matter to the American People if he has a solid policy on exactly how to do whatever it is he wants to do (as we've seen with Iraq) - he can sell just about any bill of goods he puts out there, it would seem, and they will buy it.
All of that being said... this is a very dangerous time for the GOP. They have played a very dangerous game. We could very well be looking at a major shift in power in 2008, particularly in Congress if the Democrats can get their crap together. Many of the polls coming out do not look good for these people (such as the one recently on Santorum). It will be interesting.
All of that will take care of itself. What is more certain is the damage (depending on how you look at it) that has (and is) being done to the U.S. Supreme Court. That will last a life time.
The scapegoats of next election will be immigrant workers.
Last week, Bush traveled to Texas and Arizona to push a new immigration reform policy. He broke from this usual rhetoric of compassion toward immigrant workers and talked tough about border security. "...when we catch somebody, don’t release them. Catch-and-release has been a long-standing policy of the federal government, and we’re going to change that..."
He appeared in El Paso wearing a Border Patrol jacket (kind of like this flight suit costume) and gave a speech that obviously was intended to set the stage for the 2008 GOP candidate.
The differences between LGBT scapegoats and immigrant workers are 1) while easy to demonize, LGBT people are also easy to sympathize with -- we look and sound just like the folks next door (because that's what we really are); 2) LGBT advocacy groups are better organized; and, 3) LGBT advocacy groups are better funded.
Besides that, most people are getting bored with the anti-gay rhetoric. It becoming more and more shrill and the anti-gay groups and starting to show their true colors.
Unfortunately, the truth of the matter is that we do not have enough immigrant labor. There may be 10 million workers here illegally, but there are 15 million jobs that Americans won't do. Crops are going unpicked. Floors and toilets are going unwashed. Next year the shortage will be even greater.
What will end up happening if the GOP pushes this agenda in order to maintain control of Washington is that we'll all end up paying $5.00 for a head of lettuce. We'll have nationwide food shortages. And, then we'll end up with some kind of guest worker program anyway.